Why Obama needs to wait…

There are a lot of great reasons to quickly pick a VP, but it might be more important to wait. The obvious problems with Hillary as a VP are the history of disagreement (though I don’t presume to really know their level of respect for each other), the complications of Bill’s associations, and the obvious undermining of the “change” theme. There are many benefits to picking her as well–mend the wounds with a whole lot of passionate Clintonites (a massive number of those women–which is relevant in a moment).

So the question of picking Hillary as a running mate is in many ways a wash. I’m not someone who believes that these democratic voters who supported Hillary are likely to run en masse, because I think they’ll see the reality of the stark differences in candidates–Iraq, health care, the economy, and abortion–and return to the party that represents their fundamental beliefs.

…unless McCain picks a female running mate. In this case I do see a lot of the most passionate Hillary supporters who are female torn–vote against a woman VP and for the man who beat their woman or finally help a woman break that glass ceiling that Clinton cracked. If McCain picks someone like Carly Fiorina (despite the terms she left HP on) who is strong economically (the former CEO title gives her that) or Sarah Palin, I think there will be a lot of women tempted to break from the Democratic party.

This is why there is something to Obama waiting. He can’t easily pick a different woman, as a lot of people would see her sliding in to take Hillary’s place and taking advantage of her groundbreaking work (we’ve all seen First Wives Club–no one likes the other woman who swoops in). If McCain picks a man, then the realm of possibilities for Obama opens up again. In this case, the best pick (for my money, and probably unlikely) would be Chuck Hagel. Pull in the independents, Republicans who are sick of Iraq, and I think more of the people who might relate more to McCain than Obama (read: an old white veteran versus younger black man who can’t bowl and pounds/gives knuckle to his wife before his victory speech). There is a culture gap that I think needs to be filled not because I think people are racist, but because people are most comfortable with people they have more in common with. I’ve been called cynical for this before, but I think that a ticket with HIllary and Obama is a bit too much change at once. From 43 white male led executives administrations to…well, not-is a lot to take in.